Relative to 2024
100.0%
Population
42.6M
Birth rates compound
Values need people.
Birthrates in free societies have drifted below replacement. Women's rights, free speech, religious freedom... all fading away. If you care about these values today, you should care about them in the future.
Do your part. #atleasttwo
Demographic scenario
Projected populations through 21001
2024
Relative to 2024
100.0%
Population
84.6M
Model info
Model
The scenario starts with each country's 2024 population. Each year, apply WPP 2024 medium crude births and deaths through 2100. Net migration is zero. The small chart inside each panel shows the WPP medium fertility path used by that projection.
$$P_{t+1}=P_t(1+b_t-d_t)$$
$$r_t=\frac{P_t}{P_{2024}}$$
Here, \(b_t\) and \(d_t\) are the UN's projected crude birth and death rates converted to annual population shares. \(r_t\) is the population relative to 2024, shown above as a percentage.
The menus show ten representative countries above and below replacement fertility. Fertility sorts the menus. Population change uses annual births and deaths.
Caveats
This is a scenario, not a forecast. It ignores migration, war, climate, policy shifts, and cultural change. Country is only a rough proxy for culture.
Country badges use the Women, Peace and Security Index 2025/26 from Georgetown GIWPS and PRIO. The index scores countries from 0 to 1 across women's inclusion, justice, and security; badges mark the top and bottom quartiles.